The World Economic Outlook reports provide a comprehensive analysis of the global economic landscape. The April 2024 report, titled “Steady but Slow: Resilience amid Divergence,” forecasts global growth to remain at 3.2 percent in 2024 and 2025, with a slight acceleration in advanced economies offset by a modest slowdown in emerging markets. The report highlights that while the global economy has been surprisingly resilient, persistent structural frictions are weighing on medium-term prospects.
The July 2024 update, “The Global Economy in a Sticky Spot,” notes that services inflation is holding up progress on disinflation, complicating monetary policy normalization. Upside risks to inflation have increased, raising the prospect of higher interest rates for longer, in the context of escalating trade tensions and increased policy uncertainty. The policy mix should be sequenced carefully to achieve price stability and replenish diminished buffers.
The January 2024 update, “Moderating Inflation and Steady Growth Open Path to Soft Landing,” projects global growth to stay at 3.1 percent in 2024 and rise to 3.2 percent in 2025. Elevated central bank rates to fight inflation and a withdrawal of fiscal support amid high debt are weighing on economic activity, but inflation is falling faster than expected in most regions, amid unwinding supply-side issues and restrictive monetary policy.
